Early line movement at the sportsbooks suggests that the CFP got the call right if its intention was to put the top four teams in the field. No. 4 Alabama will take on the top-ranked Michigan Wolverines in the opening matchup.
UM opened as a slight three-point favorite over the Tide, but that line quickly shrunk. A number of bettors are backing Nick Saban’s bunch to get it done in Pasadena.
In fact, Yahoo Sports writes that “nearly 80% of the money bet on the spread is taking Alabama plus the points, and a staggering 93% of the money wagered on the money line is on Alabama to win outright.”
That would indicate that gamblers view Alabama and Michigan to be more evenly matched than Vegas initially believed.
The Wolverines were dominant in the regular season, outscoring opponents 451-123 in route to a 12-0 record. They’d shut out Iowa in the B1G Championship to stay perfect in dominant fashion.
Alabama, meanwhile, was at risk of being left out of the College Football Playoff altogether. A September loss to Texas put the Crimson Tide at 11-1 entering the SEC title game, but an upset of two-time defending champ Georgia was enough to give them the nod over Florida State.
Many were critical of that decision as the Seminoles went undefeated in the regular season before beating Louisville in the ACC Championship. An injury to starting quarterback Jordan Travis gave the committee second thoughts about putting the ‘Noles in – potentially fearing another playoff blowout.
The CFP committee’s argument seems to be being proven correct judging by this early line movement between the two powerhouse teams.
Meanwhile, FSU is a two-touchdown underdog to 12-1 Georgia in the Orange Bowl.
You can no longer get Alabama at plus-money on the money line as the Tide continue to close the gap on the spread. Don’t expect the money to slow down, either.
Here was the immediate reaction to seeing the early action.
“Never doubt Nick Saban with a month to prepare.”
“What would that spread look like with Michigan playing FSU?”
“Alabama is going to be a TOUGH out for the Wolverines.”
That online banter matches the initial reaction Michigan players shared upon seeing Alabama listed as the No. 4 team instead of Florida State. There wasn’t much clapping or jubilation seen after watching the Tide sneak into the final spot.
It should make for an entertaining matchup, which was likely the CFP’s top priority in its team selection.