It was a lost weekend for the Broncos’ playoff chances.
Atop of the team’s humbling 42-17 defeat in Detroit came a series of results that pushed the Broncos’ playoff chances further down.
Cleveland rallied from a 10-point, fourth-quarter deficit to stun Chicago — and only escaped after a botched last-minute drive for the Bears ended in a “Hail Mary” pass that was nearly caught. Houston overcame the loss of C.J. Stroud and a 10-point halftime deficit to nudge past Tennessee in overtime. And finally, Buffalo — which appears to finally be finding its form after some confounding early-to-mid-season results — crushed Dallas.
With these results coming on the heels of wins by Indianapolis and Cincinnati on Saturday, the Broncos found themselves on the business end of a tumble down the standings.
Cleveland, Buffalo and Cincinnati all faced NFC opponents. All won.
And now, the Broncos sit in the No. 11 position, still losing potential tiebreakers to Indianapolis, Houston and Pittsburgh. And while the Steelers appear to be at the cusp of oblivion after three-straight losses, the Broncos’ chances of being in a potentially favorable tiebreaker with the Browns, Bengals or Bills shrunk.
The Broncos are out of mulligans. One more defeat almost certainly vaporizes their chances.
Now, the playoff simulator crafted by The New York Times still gives the Broncos a 75-percent chance to be in the postseason if they win out.
But that still leaves a realistic chance that three more wins might not be enough.
BRONCOS’ PLAYOFF CHANCES ARE DOWN BUT NOT OUT
The reason for this is two-fold.
First, the Broncos have the easiest remaining schedule of any of the projected wild-card contenders. And that doesn’t factor in playing three teams led by backup quarterbacks — Bailey Zappe in New England, Easton Stick with the Los Angeles Chargers and Aidan O’Connell in Las Vegas.
Second is that there will be some cannibalization among the other contenders. Cleveland faces Houston next week and closes with Cincinnati. The Bengals tackle the Steelers next week before facing the Chiefs and concluding with a home date against the Browns. Indianapolis concludes the regular season against Houston.
But Denver needs the right set of results. If Houston loses to Cleveland and Indianapolis, that could be helpful. But there are scenarios where it might not be. A Pittsburgh win over Cincinnati could boost the Broncos’ odds … but if the Steelers follow that with wins over Seattle and Baltimore — the latter of which might be locked into the No. 1 seed heading into Week 18 and resting its starters — then a Steelers surge could push the Broncos out on conference-record tiebreaker.
So, the Broncos need help.
The problem is, they don’t exactly know what help they need.
WHO REMAINS FOR WILD-CARD CONTENDERS
5. CLEVELAND BROWNS (9-5)
Week 16: at Houston (8-6)
Week 17: vs. N.Y. Jets (5-9)
Week 18: at Cincinnati (8-6)
Combined opponent record: 21-21 (.500)
6. CINCINNATI BENGALS (8-6)
Week 16: at Pittsburgh (7-7)
Week 17: at Kansas City (9-5)
Week 18: vs. Cleveland (8-6)
Combined opponent record: 24-18 (.571)
7. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (8-6)
Week 16: at Atlanta (6-8)
Week 17: vs. Las Vegas (6-8)
Week 18: vs. Houston (8-6)
Combined opponent record: 20-22 (.476)
8. HOUSTON TEXANS (8-6)
Week 16: vs. Cleveland (9-5)
Week 17: vs. Tennessee (5-9)
Week 18: at Indianapolis (8-6)
Combined opponent record: 22-20 (.524)
9. BUFFALO BILLS (8-6)
Week 16: at L.A. Chargers (5-9)
Week 17: vs. New England (3-11)
Week 18: at Miami (10-4)
Combined opponent record: 18-24 (.429)
10. PITTSBURGH STEELERS (7-7)
Week 16: vs. Cincinnati (8-6)
Week 17: at Seattle (6-7)
Week 18: at Baltimore (10-3)
Combined opponent record: 14-28 (.600)
11. DENVER BRONCOS (7-7)
Week 16: vs. New England (3-11)
Week 17: vs. L.A. Chargers (5-9)
Week 18: at Las Vegas (6-8)
Combined opponent record: 14-28 (.333