QUESTION: Did Todd Bowles save his job with Sunday’s win?
ANSWER: With the win on Sunday at Green Bay? No, not necessarily. It certainly helps his cause – and the Bucs’ playoff chances – that the team is back to .500 at 7-7. But I can’t help but be reminded that Lovie Smith was in almost the exact same situation in 2015, which was his second season as Tampa Bay’s head coach.
Smith and the Bucs suffered the “Collapse at the Capitol,” otherwise known as Kirk Cousins’ “You like that?!” game, as the Redskins came back from a 24-7 halftime deficit to beat Tampa Bay in Washington, 31-30. I called for Smith to be fired as the Bucs fell to 2-4 on the year, and his overall record at the time was 4-18.
Yet Smith’s Bucs won four out of the next six games to get to .500 on the year at 6-6. It was a feel-good comeback for a minute – before a four-game losing streak to end the season at 6-10 cost Smith his job.
Jon Gruden was also flying high with a 9-3 start in 2008 before a four-game losing streak at the end resulted in a 9-7 finish and no playoffs. That ultimately cost Gruden his job.
So Bowles still has work to do. At worst, the Bucs finish 7-10, and that almost certainly means his dismissal. At best, Tampa Bay wins out and finishes 10-7, which would be a two-win improvement over the previous year. Let’s see how the rest of this season plays out.
QUESTION: Do you think that’s it for Devin White now in pewter and red? Or do you think he still has a role to play this season?
ANSWER: I would be surprised if Devin White plays again in a Buccaneers uniform after he opted not to play on Sunday in Green Bay when he was told he would not be the starter, and that Tampa Bay was going to start K.J. Britt instead. That’s a five-year starter and a team captain essentially quitting on his team. I’m not sure how he comes back from that and wins over the locker room, especially this late in the season with the team focused on a playoff push.
The Bucs have four healthy inside linebackers now in Britt, Lavonte David, J.J. Russell and rookie SirVocea Dennis. So they don’t really need White. And if he were to be active as a backup, would White’s ego allow him to be relegated to special teams and covering kicks? No way. White thinks too highly of himself at this stage of the game.
I think there’s a strong chance that he is just inactive for the remaining games this season unless something drastic happens over the next couple of weeks. I’ve already reported back on December 1 in an SR’s Fab 5 column that the Bucs are not going to re-sign him. So Tampa Bay just needs to ride this situation out and roll with Britt and David as the starting linebackers.
QUESTION: Will the Bucs get a third-round comp pick when Devin White leaves?
ANSWER: No. Compensatory draft picks are awarded to teams that lose more in free agency than they gain. The exact formula for the league awarding comps is a bit of a mystery, but it has to do with the average per year of the contract of the players signed against the players lost.
Devin White has lost a lot of market value by absolutely bombing in his contract year with regards to his poor play and his attitude in 2023. He’s gone from possibly making more than $10 million per year to likely much less. Let’s say White signs a one-year, prove-it deal worth $5 million next year. If Tampa Bay signs a new defensive or offensive player for $5 million or more, it would offset and the Bucs would get nothing in 2025 for losing White.
For example, according to OverTheCap.com, the Bucs are currently slated to receive a seventh-round comp pick in 2024 because the loss of Rakeem Nunez-Roches at $4 million per year and Sean Murphy-Bunting at $3.5 million per year were cancelled out by the signings of Baker Mayfield at $4 million and Greg Gaines and Greg Gaines at $3.5 million.
The loss of Mike Edwards at $3 million per year was only offset by Ryan Neal at $2.13 million. So the discrepancy of nearly $1 million between the two safeties winds up netting the Bucs a seventh-round pick.
QUESTION: Can this Tampa Bay three-game winning game streak get stretched out to six games and a division title?
ANSWER: Can it? Yes, it can. The Jaguars have lost three straight and are reeling. Throw in the fact that quarterback Trevor Lawrence is in concussion protocol and Jacksonville is a weaker team right now.
Riding a wave of confidence that comes with three straight wins, the Bucs should be amped to play well at home on Christmas Eve. I think having that game at home instead of traveling so close to the holiday helps Tampa Bay in this instance.
If the Bucs successfully get by the Jaguars, they’ll be 8-7 and hosting a New Orleans Saints team for the division title the next week. Todd Bowles has the Saints’ number for some reason, as he’s 3-0 against New Orleans as Tampa Bay’s head coach.
Winning those two games might be enough to give the Bucs the division title. Tampa Bay clinched its second-straight NFC South title in Week 17 a year ago by beating the Panthers at Raymond James Stadium. The Bucs would love to go to Carolina to finish the regular season with a third-straight division title already under their belt.
All three games are winnable. It will be interesting to see how Bowles’ Bucs finish the 2023 regular season.
QUESTION: What has changed in the offense, particularly the run game, to make the Bucs more effective?
ANSWER: Pewter Report’s Josh Queipo did an excellent breakdown of what has improved in Tampa Bay’s ground game, so I’m going to refer you to his article and keep my answer and sweet. Dave Canales is learning as he goes as a rookie play-caller, and this young offensive line is growing together and showing improvement in the running game.
The Bucs are doing less zone blocking and more counter and gap scheme than before and it really suits the talent along the offensive line very well. Credit also goes to Rachaad White, who is running with more purpose and determination and less hesitation. White is getting in a groove with the timing of the offensive line and it’s coming together quite nicely.
QUESTION: What are our opportunities for pass rush or safety if we pick at No. 19 or later? We have to be able to have a pass rush with the front four.
ANSWER: I’m not sure there is a safety worth selecting in the first round this year. Miami’s Kamren Kinchens is regarded as the best safety prospect, followed by Minnesota’s Tyler Nubin, but I’m not sure either is a first-rounder. Both should still be on the board when the Bucs select towards the end of the round – if their draft positioning holds due to the team making the playoffs.
I’ll do more draft research in January after the season is over and Pewter Report begins its Senior Bowl prep. But according to MockDraftDatabase.com, Penn State edge rusher Chop Robinson rates as the No. 19 prospect and Washington edge rusher Bralen Trice is No. 23. So there are a couple of potential later-round options. I agree that the Bucs need to find an edge rusher who can consistently win one-on-ones and apply more pressure.
Remember, the Bucs just drafted defensive tackle Calijah Kancey with the No. 19 overall pick this past season. So picking later in the draft is not a death knell or a lost cause by any means. The goal is to win enough games and make the playoffs – and right now the Bucs are in position to possibly make a playoff run for a fourth straight year.
QUESTION: What does Baker Mayfield have to do the rest of the season for the Bucs not to go QB in the first round and re-sign Mayfield?
ANSWER: Both head coach Todd Bowles and general manager Jason Licht have a fondness for Baker Mayfield, who has played really good football this year in Tampa Bay. If Licht and Bowles are back in 2024 and Mayfield delivers a postseason berth, there is a good chance he could return next year. Mayfield is a good fit in Dave Canales’ offense.
Even if Mayfield departs, I’m not sure the Bucs spend a first-round pick on a quarterback. Perhaps a second-round pick instead. We’ll see how the 2024 QB class shakes out in terms of the rankings.
And if Mayfield stays, that should not deter the team from drafting a quarterback, either. Kyle Trask will be entering a contract year and remains largely unproven. With starters dropping like flies around the league, a team can never have enough good QBs. I’d support the notion to sign Mayfield to a short-term deal with a hefty raise, but also drafting a future starter in the second round – or possibly the late first.