Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college basketball, where 3–20 DePaul is heading toward a Valentine’s Day massacre hosting 22–2 UConn on Wednesday:
CRISIS POINTS
February fades, bad starts-for a variety of reasons the season hasn’t gone as expected for these teams. Can they rectify that in the final month of the regular season?
Kentucky Wildcats (1). A significant segment of Big Blue Nation is suffering from Cal fatigue, and recent events have swelled the ranks of the disgruntled. After three straight disappointing seasons, the Wildcats (16–7) now have deflated high hopes for the current team by losing three straight home games for the first time since December 1966-a decade before Rupp Arena even opened, and Adolph Rupp himself was still the coach. Kentucky has done its part to get two bubble teams (the Florida Gators and Gonzaga Bulldogs) into the bracket with wins in Rupp and also surrendered 103 points to the Tennessee Volunteers.
Since John Calipari (2) won his only national championship in 2012 and last visited the Final Four in ’15, returns on a massive coaching investment have diminished. The Wildcats haven’t won the Southeastern Conference since ’20 and haven’t won the SEC tournament since ’18. Now this team is threatening to turn a promising season sour.
Two things have been constant for Kentucky in the Cal Era: huge amounts of talent and questionable Xs-and-Os acumen-the latter especially lately. Calipari is outcoached more often than a guy making $9 million a year should be. Whether it’s game planning or in-game strategy, the Cats don’t often have an edge on the bench. (Maybe that is in part attributable to staff makeup.)
The loss to Gonzaga on Saturday was a painfully clear illustration. A Zags staffer pointed out on X (formerly Twitter) how futile Kentucky was trying to defend a standard middle ball-screen action.
Gonzaga simply kept running it because Kentucky simply couldn’t stop it. The Wildcats were sufficiently soft and hesitant that there was both no pressure on the Bulldogs’ ballhandlers and no denial of the big men as they rolled into the paint to post up-the worst of both defensive worlds.
Calipari’s inability to either recognize or counterprogram what Mark Few was running over and over was glaring. He’s got a bad defensive team (No. 124 nationally, per Ken Pomeroy) and seemingly can’t fix it. Kentucky’s three-yes, three-7-footers are young, and they aren’t getting better defensively. They can block shots-UK is second nationally in block rate-but more often, they’re surrendering inside baskets and putbacks.
It does not help that the UK guards are underwhelming in terms of keeping drivers out of the paint. Reed Sheppard is a great freshman with remarkable hands-his 2.4 steals per game lead the SEC-but he isn’t a great ball stopper. Fellow freshman Rob Dillingham is worse.
In fairness, Kentucky has had at least one significant rotation player out for every game since the struggle began a month ago. The Cats are 4–5 in their last nine with Dillingham, D.J. Wagner Jr., Adou Thiero, Justin Edwards and Tre Mitchell missing time at various points. But this is a team that, in theory at least, goes 11 deep. It is a stretch to consider Kentucky shorthanded when one of those 11 is out.
A team this talented could put it together quickly at just the right time. Calipari has done that before at Kentucky-there were memorable Final Four runs in 2011 and ’14. But that’s a long time ago now. Does the $9 Million Man still have the magic or will Cal fatigue deepen?
Indiana Hoosiers (3). Incremental improvement in the first two seasons under Mike Woodson (4) has U-turned sharply in year three. With Trayce Jackson-Davis-the No. 3 scorer and No. 1 rebounder in school history-Woodson at least got the Hoosiers to the NCAA tournament twice and advanced to the round of 32 once. Without him, this 14–10 team isn’t going to make the Big Dance unless it goes on a startling run.
Indiana hasn’t won consecutive games in 2024, hasn’t been competitive against archrival Purdue (two losses by a combined 41 points) and hasn’t beaten a single power-conference opponent currently projected to make the tournament. The résumé is threadbare, even if the roster isn’t.
Woodson landed five-star freshman MacKenzie Mgbako after he decommitted from the Duke Blue Devils. He brought in former five-star center Kel’el Ware as a transfer from the Oregon Ducks. He retained starting guard Trey Galloway and valuable backup Malik Reneau. And it hasn’t worked.
Here in the three-point era, Indiana is a throwback-and not in a good way. The Hoosiers rank 349th nationally in percentage of shots taken from three, which actually is a wise allocation given the lack of accuracy (32.8%, 224th in the nation). Indiana also shoots poorly from the line, is turnover-prone and doesn’t offensively rebound well.
Some IU fans are dreaming of former Bob Knight manager Dusty May (5) leaving the Florida Atlantic Owls program he’s built from scratch, but it would be a surprise to many if the school forces out a native son and former IU great like Woodson after three seasons. Indiana hasn’t changed men’s basketball coaches in three seasons or fewer due to on-court performance in at least a century.
Then again, if the specter of losing May to another school arises, it might spur drastic action. Stay tuned.
USC Trojans (6). There appears to be no salvaging this disaster. The Trojans started the season No. 21 in the AP poll and currently are tied for last in the Pac-12 at 9–15 overall, 3–10 in league play. After signing the No. 3 recruiting class in the nation, behind Kentucky and Duke, and returning leading scorer Boogie Ellis, USC has achieved nothing.
The Trojans bottomed out Saturday night at the Stanford Cardinal, giving up a 25–0 run in the first half and losing by 31 to a team that is 12–11. They’ve lost eight of their last nine, and after that non-effort in Palo Alto, Calif., it’s fair to wonder whether coach Andy Enfield (7) has lost the locker room as well.
The roster has been in flux all season, with only one player appearing in all 24 games. Bronny James (8) certainly shouldn’t be judged based on a freshman season that was preceded by cardiac arrest in June-he missed the first eight games and didn’t enter the starting lineup until mid-January. That said, his game has never matched the fame associated with his name. The spotlight was thrust upon him more than it was earned.
Fellow freshman guard Isaiah Collier (9), the more ready-made star and No. 2 overall recruit in the class, missed six games. He’s compiled good numbers when in the lineup, but hasn’t drastically altered the team’s trajectory (8–10 with Collier, 1–5 without him).
Including this season, Enfield has missed as many NCAA tourneys as he’s made (five) at USC. That may be perfectly acceptable at an apathetic basketball school. But there’s no telling what the roster will look like heading into a tougher league with tougher travel next season.
UCLA Bruins (10). Here is one place where the season is trending better, not worse. But wow, what a brutal start. Mick Cronin (11) overscheduled December with a young team and the result was 10 losses in the first 16 games, including one clunker against Cal State Northridge. Currently, the Bruins are on a five-game winning streak and have won seven of the last eight, losing only at Arizona. Five of the final seven are at home as well.
But with a No. 112 NCAA NET rating, the mission is clear: win the Pac-12 tournament or there will be no NCAA bid. UCLA is 13–11 overall, 0–6 in Quad 1 games and 1–3 in Quad 3. Yikes.
Cronin’s crew cannot shoot and struggles to create good shots. Tough combination. UCLA is 327th in effective field goal percentage, with only three power-conference teams below it (the Vanderbilt Commodores, Texas A&M Aggies and Rutgers Scarlet Knights). The Bruins also are even in assists and turnovers at 277, which is not an ideal ratio.