Stepping onto the mound for his AA debut for Wichita, 2022 draftee Zebby Matthews was staring down at a formidable group of hitters. The Arkansas Travelers boast a lineup that includes Cole Young and Harry Ford (34th and 35th in the MLB Pipeline top 100 prospects list). Tyler Locklear, a data darling and on base machine from the same draft as Matthews, also featured.
Matthews put together an impressive debut for the Wind Surge, going 6.2 innings, giving up three hits, two unearned runs (scored on a throwing error) and striking out nine. It was a performance that has cemented him as a Twins MiLB arm who has taken a significant leap in 2024.
Matthews was drafted under slot in the eighth round of the 2022 draft out of Western Kentucky (signed for $125,000). With a prototypical starting pitcher’s frame (6’5, 220 pounds), the scouting report on Matthews coming out of college was that he was an elite strike thrower with good fastball characteristics without overpowering velocity or secondary pitches.
That’s a useful draft tendency to hold onto. We know that the Twins tend to take a run of college pitchers in the mid to late rounds of the draft as they believe they can develop good value in that range, and so it has proved with pitchers like Bailey Ober and Louie Varland . College pitching in the middle rounds is typically rooted in one or two intriguing traits, the rest is up to the player development team and player to develop and work on.
Matthews relied on an extensive pitch mix in 2023 (four seam, sinker, changeup, curveball, sweeper, cutter). The indicators from Twins PD staff were that developing consistent shapes on his secondary pitches was his biggest developmental need, having already added velocity to a good fastball.
Thus far in 2024, the results have been outstanding. Matthews’ fastball touched 97 mph in his first AA start. Through 29.1 innings pitched this season, he’s maintaining a 1.18 FIP (1.72 xFIP), 34.6 K%, and hasn’t walked a single batter. Opposing hitters are currently hitting .187/.187/.243 (.430) off Matthews. All of this while leveraging his elite strike throwing (69.3 Strike%). To put Matthews’ control and command into context, his current strike percentage would rank sixth in MLB, behind Jared Jones, George Kirby, Zack Littell, Chris Sale, and Tarik Skubal. Matthews was always in the zone, now he’s beating hitters with increasingly nasty stuff in the zone.
It’s always hard to balance excitement about prospects with pragmatism. Matthews will undoubtedly run into bumps and challenges as he adjusts at AA (and hitters adjust to him). He’s yet another example, though, of the Twins doing what they do best: identifying pitching that can be maximized by their player development team. Matthews deserves a ton of praise for the progress he’s made since turning pro. He’s certainly showing the type of improvement and development you want to see in a future big-league arm.
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