The Minnesota Twins had a sizable hole to fill in the rotation this offseason. The Twins let Sonny Gray leave via free agency and were unable to bring in a top-of-the-rotation replacement. If the goal was to bring in someone able to compete at a Cy Young level, the early returns have proven to show Joe Ryan is it.
Paying big money for an aging Sonny Gray over multiple years was never something Minnesota would have considered. Had ownership opened up the purse strings a bit, Derek Falvey also wouldn’t have had to target Anthony DeSclafani off of the scrap heap. Still, the rotation needed Pablo Lopez to find another gear, Bailey Ober to step up, and Joe Ryan to be the best version of himself. Two-thirds of those things have happened, but how good Ryan has been that might be the most surprising.
The Twins acquiring Ryan from the Tampa Bay Rays for the ghost of Nelson Cruz always seemed like something of a coup. The way in which he has been developed, and how he has evolved as a pitcher, has only made it more of a steal for the Twins. A solid middle-of-the-rotation pitcher last year, Ryan now is flirting with Cy Young candidacy.
It isn’t as though the 3.15 ERA is otherworldly, but Ryan owns a 2.78 xERA and a 3.02 FIP. His command has produced the lowest walk rate of his career, and that’s impressive for a guy that has never significantly handed out free passes. Bitten by the home run previously, he is still allowing 1.1 per nine, but that’s the best mark of his career, and his H/9 is special. With a WHIP below 1.00, Ryan is putting it all together.
Keeping batters off balance has been a constant this season for Ryan as well. His 28% hard hit rate is reflective of a career low, and he’s forcing batters to put the ball on the ground more than he ever has before.
The results are also a byproduct of a new pitch mix. Known for being a guy who throws a high- spin fastball up in the zone, the Twins have Ryan flipping that pitch just 46.5% of the time, a career-low. He’s incorporated a cutter in a very limited fashion, but substantially upped the usage of his changeup, and his slider is being featured more than ever.
Opposing batters have been forced to attack Ryan differently this season, and with the way he has changed his repertoire, he has had the advantage. With just two starts in which he has allowed four runs, the rest of his outings have been almost identical in that you can count on the strikeouts and a quality outing each time he takes the ball.
Rocco Baldelli will likely watch the overall effectiveness of his starters shift as the season goes on. It seems unlikely that Pablo Lopez will be stuck in this rut, and there is reason to believe Simeon Woods Richardson may see some regression. Chris Paddack has been great given what’s expected of him, and that means Ober and Ryan are key cogs to how this team flows.
Should Ryan continue to substantiate this level of performance, both he and the Twins stand to benefit. At 1.5 fWAR he leads all Minnesota pitchers and is 14th across baseball as a whole. That’s not only good for a guy grabbed in exchange for a 40-year-old designated hitter, but it’s incredible for a starter looking to push towards the upper echelon in the sport.
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