Every new premier is viewed through the prism of a dynasty. The fawning media wants to find the next big thing. Supporters are convinced the flag is the first of many. Opposition fans look on jealously.
The AFL has had four dynasties, commonly accepted as three or more premierships in a condensed period, since the year 2000 (Brisbane in 2001-03, Geelong in 2007-11, Hawthorn in 2013-15, Richmond in 2017-20), which has perhaps conditioned people to think they are going to happen more often than they should.
From the period listed above, most other winners didn’t even reach the grand final the next year, let alone embark on a period of dominance. Before 2000, the last dynasty team was Hawthorn through the late ’80s and early ’90s, well before equalisation measures kicked in.
Finally, it seems that football watchers are realising what has been apparent all year, and possibly even throughout last season – Collingwood are not a dynasty team. At this point, they’re more likely to miss the finals than win one.
People were sucked in for a while of course. The Pies lost their first three games, but were able to make their way into the eight by Round 10. The “slow-starting premier” is almost an institution in the AFL these days, so there were plenty of believers.
At their highest point, Collingwood actually sat third on the ladder, at the conclusion of Round 14, albeit they had played one more game than their top eight rivals at that point. But the telling point was the column that rarely lies – percentage. The Pies only had the tenth-best percentage, despite their lofty position.
Last year, percentage told the truth about them in the opposite way. They finished with the year’s best, ranking top four in both attack and defence. That said, they were hardly streets ahead of their rivals, a point proven throughout the finals, when they won three matches by a combined 12 points. Melbourne outplayed them for three quarters in the qualifying final, GWS held sway for much of the middle of their prelim, and of course the grand final only ever had a goal or two in it for the entire match.
This year tells a different story. Collingwood still ranks respectably for points for, coming in at No.7 (albeit 2-3 goals behind the best teams), but they have had trouble stopping the opposition, ranking No.12 in defence. Even lowly Adelaide and St Kilda have conceded less than them.
Some Pies fans complain about injuries, but the back six has had the three All Australian-calibre pieces play every game – Darcy Moore, Isaac Quaynor and Brayden Maynard. The first two have fallen away dramatically in form. Billy Frampton has only missed two games, and one or both of John Noble and Oleg Markov have been in the side each week too.
Collingwood have 12 names on the injury list this week. Five of them you’ve never heard of, Jeremy Howe is 34 and starting to look it, Mason Cox is 33 and has a combined 28 disposals and a goal from his last five games, Charlie Dean is a VFL battler and most Pies fans have wanted Lachie Schultz dropped at some stage this year.
Brody Mihocek and Beau McCreery are walk-up starts to the forward line, both providing hardness and honesty, while Tom Mitchell would add yeast to the midfield but is starting to battle injuries on the wrong side of 30.
Collingwood may draw a line in the sand this week after three losses in a row and beat Hawthorn. They won’t be out of the finals race if they don’t, given how wide the band of ordinary teams is this year, but it will be difficult. Richmond the week after will be an easy four points.
After that comes the pain – Sydney, Carlton and Brisbane in consecutive weeks, the three best teams in the competition. In the last round, they will take on Melbourne in what may be an unofficial elimination final.
And for the love of God can we put this idea of the Pies being “the comeback kings” to bed. There is no such thing. In their last three matches: down by 11 points at 3QT to Geelong, lost by 20; down by 17 points at 3QT to Essendon, lost by 12; down by 26 points at 3QT to Gold Coast, lost by 11. Even before those matches, they were up by two goals against the Bulldogs and conceded the last five, and coughed up a five-goal lead to Fremantle and were lucky to escape with a draw.
Collingwood are not very good this year, it’s no more complicated than that. Not every team is capable of a dynasty, and they certainly aren’t.