Liverpool should be wary of Eddie Howe’s biggest threat as it heads to St James’ Park to face Newcastle in a huge Premier League test on Sunday afternoon.
Almost exactly a year ago, Liverpool beat Newcastle United 2-1 at Anfield thanks to a dramatic winner from Fábio Carvalho a full eight minutes into second-half stoppage time.
The Reds had actually gone behind on the night, with Alexander Isak strolling through a gap in its defense and dispatching the ball beyond Alisson into the roof of the net.
This emphatic finish came on what was Isak’s Premier League debut following a $79m (£63m/€74m) move from Spanish outfit Real Sociedad.
Isak would go on to net nine more goals to reach double figures for his maiden campaign, and while that doesn’t sound particularly spectacular, it benefits from some key context. The Swede only played 1,526 minutes over the course of the season, partly because of injury (he missed 11 games either side of the World Cup), and partly because he was still trying to establish himself in the first XI. Indeed, Eddie Howe, who already had the prolific Callum Wilson at his disposal, named him amongst the substitutes five times.
While he only ranked joint-18th for total goals, he was ninth for goals per 90 minutes (0.59), which would equate to a haul of 22 or 23 over a full 38-match schedule. He also placed in the top 10 for expected goals per 90 (0.49), indicating that he fashions big opportunities through his movement.
Now that he looks like Newcastle’s first-choice number nine, having started both of its matches so far ahead of Wilson, he’s ready to compete at the top of the goal-scoring charts.
If his goal at Anfield last year was one warning shot ahead of Liverpool’s trip to St James’ Park on Sunday, he offered another with the first of his double against Aston Villa on the opening day. After Anthony Gordon received the ball on the left wing and cut inside, Isak made a run in behind defender Ezri Konsa, pressured him into an error, and then clinically dinked the ball over goalkeeper Emiliano Martínez.
The 5-1 Magpies victory as a whole was a brutal illustration of what Newcastle can do to a shoddily-executed high line, but this goal in particular showed the threat Isak poses when there’s space to run into.
But it’s not just the goals that make him a problem. Isak likes to run with the ball, featuring in the top 12 percentiles among positional peers in the big five European leagues for progressive carries (2.39) and progressive carrying distance (75.85 yards) per 90 minutes over the last year. When he goes on these runs, he frequently beats players, with only Arsenal’s Gabriel Jesus averaging more successful dribbles per 90 minutes among Premier League center-forwards last season (1.95 vs 1.89).
When Isak drops deep to receive possession, he can either advance it into dangerous areas by carrying, or by sliding it forward into a teammate — he places as high as the 82nd percentile for progressive passes (2.72) too.
Overall, the 23-year-old possesses a unique, almost logic-defying skillset for a center-forward, which prompted The Athletic’s Carl Anka to dub him ‘a footballing unicorn’.
Jürgen Klopp has already picked him out for praise, telling the press before Isak’s debut in 2022 that Newcastle had acquired ‘a really good player’ (via Newcastle World).
Privately, he might wish that he was donning Liverpool red instead, especially after a report from Spanish outlet Mundo Deportivo last year claimed that the club had seen a $77m (£60m/€70m) bid rejected.
If Isak scores, or wreaks havoc, on Sunday, then it may well inspire a sense of regret.