A recently published offseason FAQ with Mandy Bell, the Guardians beat writer for MLB.com, included this passage:
“Will the Guardians be active in free agency?
After their two big (and uncharacteristic) free-agent signings in Josh Bell and Mike Zunino failed to pan out for them this year, let’s assume they’ll avoid that for 2024.”
I don’t begrudge Mandy for the response, which probably reflects the team’s actual point of view with accuracy. But it’s a statement that is sad on multiple levels.
The uncharacteristically “big” free agent contracts referenced here, signed at a point where Cleveland was defending AL Central champs and looking to take the next step forward:
- Josh Bell: 2 years, $33 million
- Mike Zunino: 1 year, $6 million
Neither of these were terribly ambitious signings. Zunino was a bargain-bin pickup who performed accordingly. Bell was a relatively high-profile FA acquisition by Cleveland’s standards, but he barely cost more than Minnesota paid for their eventual backup catcher.
Bell was actually decent in the first half before the Guardians traded him at the deadline to dump his salary, while still in the middle of a tight race. He’d have certainly helped them down the stretch, as he posted a 119 OPS+ with Miami after being traded, so claiming he “failed to pan out” is a bit disingenuous.
What the question-and-answer above really gets at, in essence, is that the Cleveland Guardians under owner Larry Dolan are cheap as hell. It reminds me of the Twins back in their late-Metrodome era, which is a period I’d gladly never revisit as a fan. It’s ironic how the Twins have now swung into the position of Goliath to Cleveland’s David from a spending perspective, adding to their advantages in talent and continuity.
The Guardians franchise is in a weird moment of transition. Terry Francona has retired, leaving them to search for a new manager and preparing for a culture reset. This doesn’t seem like the most attractive gig – trying to fill the shoes of a legend while dealing with the encumbrance of limited spending.
I’ll be honest, if I’m an in-demand manager on the hunt for a job (hello, Craig Counsell), and seeing some prime vacancies open with the Mets and Astros for example, I’m gonna look at what Cleveland did in 2023 – basically giving up in the middle of a wide-open race during Tito’s last hurrah – and be really soured by it. This franchise exudes “don’t give a s***” vibes.
Will that same mentality guide their offseason? If Mandy Bell’s inclination about their free agency intentions is correct, this seems like a fair expectation. And if they’re not looking to upgrade aggressively following a 76-win season, with the reigning division champs ready to come back strong, then what is Cleveland’s offseason strategy?
It makes you wonder about a guy like Shane Bieber, who is set to make more than $12 million in his final year of arbitration and team control. Now would be the time to trade him, albeit at less than peak value following an injury-marred season. If Cleveland isn’t going to make any kind of competitive push, you even have to wonder about Jose Ramirez, who’s got five years remaining under contract but could be open to waiving his no-trade clause if it means going somewhere with a real motivation to win.
Minnesota will be keeping a close eye on the team that has most often been their chief rival in the AL Central over the past five years. The White Sox are in disarray and the Royals are hopeless. Detroit might be the most credible threat in the division if the Guardians aren’t even going to mount an offensive.
I wouldn’t dismiss the Tigers off-hand, but they’ve got work to do. They finished below .500 with a minus-79 run differential this year (expected W/L = 73-89) and they, like the Twins, are losing a top starter to free agency in Eduardo Rodriguez.
I don’t think these developments should be impact Minnesota’s offseason approach per se – the goal for 2024 should be to win 100 games and earn a first-round bye, regardless of what the rest of the division does – but a passive winter from the rest of the Central might make them more inclined to stand pat, hold court, and wait until the trade deadline to make their big push.
At the very least, it all contributes to why I view this as a likely slow-moving offseason for the Twins, who are tracking a number of external factors that will influence their own path forward.