Collingwood’s big 2023 off-season move for ex-Fremantle forward Lachie Schultz has come under fire, with the premiers staring down the very real scenario of giving away a top-10 pick.
The Magpies gambled on their 2024 fortunes when they traded away pick 34 plus their future first-round pick in exchange for Schultz in the most recent trade period.
With most of the AFL world expecting the Magpies to push for the top four again, this trade valued Schultz at roughly pick 8, according to the AFL Draft Value Index – a high price but one they were willing to pay, if they were handing over something like pick 16.
But Collingwood currently sits 12th on the ladder and, with poor form and a tough remaining draw, could realistically finish in the bottom six.
As it stands they will hand Fremantle the No.7 pick, with the overall trade then valuing Schultz as roughly pick 4, according to the AFL Draft Value Index.
Current Lachie Schultz trade details
COLLINGWOOD gets Lachie Schultz
FREMANTLE gets Pick 7 (2024) and Pick 34 (2023)
Pick 34 was on-traded to Richmond and then West Coast, used by the Eagles on Clay Hall
“The trade that they made to get Lachie Schultz in, which I supported at the time, I felt this was gonna be an excellent recruit,” Kane Cornes said on Nine’s Footy Classified.
“But you look at it six months down the track, you go, well this has been a disaster really. And they let Ginnivan go.
“Ginnivan’s about to turn 22 at the end of the year, Schultz is gonna be 27, and Ginnivan is producing far greater impact in pretty much every stat … he’s been a far more impactful player.”
Cornes is not quite correct on the players’ 2024 production, with Schultz ahead on the all-encompassing AFL Player Ratings metric and producing more goals, tackles and pressure acts per game.
LACHIE SCHULTZ vs JACK GINNIVAN in 2024 (Averages)
Disposals: Schultz 11.3, Ginnivan 16
Marks inside 50: Schultz 1.5, Ginnivan 1.3
Goals: Schultz 1.3, Ginnivan 1.1
Score assists: Schultz 0.5, Ginnivan 1.1
Score involvements: Schultz 4.8, Ginnivan 5.5
Tackles: Schultz 3.87, Ginnivan 2.53
Pressure acts: Schultz 18.1, Ginnivan 15.5
AFL Player Ratings: Schultz 6.85, Ginnivan 5.98
However the impacts of the pair are very much comparable, while the price paid to gain Schultz and return for Ginnivan are not.
Ginnivan was traded to Hawthorn in a multi-pick swap, with Collingwood receiving pick 33 plus the Hawks’ 2024 second and third-round picks, while the Hawks gained Ginnivan, pick 39 and the Magpies’ 2024 second and fourth-round picks.
Given the Hawks were expected to finish below the Magpies, the future pick swaps were perceived as a win for Collingwood, but they may have actually downgraded those selections making the trade almost a complete wash.
It is certainly nowhere close to the top-10 pick return Fremantle is likely to receive for Schultz.
“The most concerning thing is you gave away Pick 7 as it sits right now. That’s what we’ve got to go on, and they’ve got a tough draw and all of that,” Cornes said.
“So you’ve traded your future first for a player who is basically delivering what you had with another player, who you gave away for pretty much nothing, and you’ve also given away that great pick inside the top 10 as it sits – which they desperately need.”
The Magpies could desperately use that selection with an old list and a lack of talent acquired via the national draft in recent years.
While Nick Daicos is a superstar, and the likes of Isaac Quaynor (pick 13) and Beau McCreery (pick 44) were great pick-ups, Craig McRae’s side has otherwise struggled at the draft with arguably just four hits in five years.
From the 2021-23 drafts only Harvey Harrison has played double-digit games, while 2018 and 2019 provided nothing outside of Quaynor.
In the 2020 draft, where the Pies had four picks in the top 30 and six in the top 44, only McCreery and the since-traded Ollie Henry are clear best-23 players.
The selections of John Noble and Ash Johnson in the mid-season draft, plus pre-season supplemental pick-up Oleg Markov, have been necessary given the national draft misses.