Fourth-year Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin has led the Rebels back to a New Year’s Six bowl game slot for the second time in just three seasons. This time instead of New Orleans, La., Ole Miss’ 2023 season will end in Atlanta, Ga. in a first time ever matchup against a 10-2 No. 10 ranked Penn State squad. Both teams enter the matchup having won four of their last five games, including two-straight victories to finish off their regular seasons.
The Nittany Lions 2023 season has gone eerily similar to Ole Miss’. Both teams have lost each of their two games to two top-10 teams. Both of these teams are right on the cusp of hanging with the championship contenders, and should make for an interesting battle for the right to notch that eleventh victory and crack the top-10.
To get a better understanding of Ole Miss’ unfamiliar opponent, Inside the Rebels sat down with Penn State insider Tyler Donohue to do our first of two Q&As. Here are the five initial questions I had for our Lions247 writer…
TK: Any key injuries that could still be lingering from the regular season to the Peach Bowl?
TD: This Penn State squad managed to stay relatively healthy throughout the fall but there are a few notes here. The Nittany Lions lost projected starting left guard Landon Tengwall to a medical retirement during preseason camp, and it’s been a rotational approach at guard most of the time. JB Nelson started most contests at left guard but he was sidelined early in the regular-season finale and we don’t yet know his Peach Bowl status. With or without Nelson, expect to see plenty of 350-pound redshirt freshman guard Vega Ioane involved.
Another situation to consider on offense is found at receiver, where starter Harrison Wallace missed all four November matchups. He suffered an injury Oct. 28 against Indiana and returned to the sideline that afternoon wearing an arm sling. Penn State head coach James Franklin did not shut the door on a potential 2023 return, so Wallace warrants monitoring in the weeks ahead. He was a popular preseason breakout pick and showed some early flashes but spent most of his redshirt sophomore season banged up. In his absence, Kent State transfer Dante Cephas has started with mixed results.
Defensively, Penn State brings enviable depth to the field. We’re not anticipating any major lingering injury issues on that side of the ball, though the opt-out aspect is notable.
TK: With Drew Allar as QB in 2023, has overall quarterback play improved from a season ago?
TD: That’s an interesting question. You look at the overall numbers from Drew Allar as a sophomore — 27 total touchdowns with one interception — and it’s hard to ask for much more in those departments from a first-year starter. But the former five-star prospect didn’t really elevate the overall pass attack as most of us anticipated. It’s worth noting that the receiver room was a concern all year long. And did former offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich set him up for success? James Franklin didn’t seem to think so.
Allar completed fewer than 50 percent of his passes in four games, which represents one-third of the schedule, and combined for 261 passing yards against Michigan and Ohio State. He found momentum against Michigan State, but those 292 yards on Black Friday marked his first time over 240 since the season opener. If the positive trend sustains versus Ole Miss, there will be increased confidence in Allar’s ability to take this offense to another level under new play-caller Andy Kotelnicki (he’ll take over after the bowl).
Just to touch on the comparison to last year as the question noted — former Penn State quarterback Sean Clifford was playing pretty sharp football for most of the 2022 campaign, and he delivered arguably the best game of his career en route to Rose Bowl MVP honors last winter. So in judging QB play versus last year, the play-by-play ceiling is higher with Allar due to his rare arm strength and physical attributes, but Clifford put together a more complete body of work, even with more turnovers.
TK: Where do you think Ole Miss stands in the ranks of PSU’s toughest challenges this season?
TD: Based on our initial look at this matchup, I’d place it third in terms of toughness on Penn State’s 2023 schedule. Michigan and Ohio State represent a huge annual challenge in the Big Ten East, and both have now beaten PSU in three straight seasons (seven consecutive for the Buckeyes). In those matchups this year, the Nittany Lions had combined 10 chances for game-tying or go-ahead drives in the second half, and failed to produce any points on them. OC Mike Yurcich was fired within 24 hours of the Michigan game.
I’d slot Ole Miss ahead of Big Ten West champion Iowa, a 10-3 team that lost 31-0 in Beaver Stadium this September. Iowa owns a truly elite defense but that offense is atrocious and managed only 76 yards that night. I don’t see Ole Miss as truly elite on either side of the ball, but the Rebels’ offense brings proven firepower to the field and that defense is at least an average SEC unit with the potential to create problems with its pass rush. There’s also a lot of respect for Lane Kiffin in Happy Valley.
Thus, this is a significant opportunity for Penn State to apply a strong punctuation mark to the end of this season. A bowl game against Liberty wouldn’t have felt like it offered the same kind of launch pad into 2024.
TK: Biggest strength/weakness on the field for PSU?
TD: As referenced above, the receiver situation has been quite messy for Penn State dating back to preseason camp. Senior KeAndre Lambert-Smith had a big Rose Bowl last January and finished the regular season with 300 more receiving yards (673) than any teammate, but his final three contests featured only two catches for 28 yards. No other receiver reached even 25 catches for 300 yards. If Harrison Wallace is unable to return from injury, keep eyes on Kent State transfer Dante Cephas (only one game over 50 yards) and late-season riser Omari Evans, a sophomore who flashed his speed on a 60-yard reception versus Michigan State. Penn State has the personnel to lean on its tight ends (15 receiving touchdowns) and running backs, but receivers will need to make plays down the field to give Drew Allar his best shot at finding sustained success in another high-profile setting.
The biggest strength for Penn State this season has consistently been its defensive depth. At times the Nittany Lions have played 10 defensive linemen and eight defensive backs with regularity and without an obvious drop-off, largely maintaining that approach through Game 7 (Ohio State) thanks in part to lopsided wins. As competition increased and the season advanced, we saw the Nittany Lions tighten things up at safety and become more top-heavy in D-line snap distribution, but this is a unit that brings legitimate Power Five game-ready talent from across its two-deep, and into the three-deep in some areas.
TK: How many other players is James Franklin waiting on to make a choice of whether to play in the game or not (if any) and what feel are you getting for those potential decisions?
TD: The loss of Chop Robinson is a significant one. Although his two-season sack numbers (9.5) with Penn State don’t necessarily pop off the page, the Maryland transfer established himself among the Big Ten’s most feared edge rushers and showed the versatility to attack from inside on obvious passing downs. However, defensive end is a position built to deal with that loss, and Robinson previously missed nearly three full games with a midseason injury so this isn’t unknown territory. Fellow first-team All-Big Ten selection Adisa Isaac has been, by far, PSU’s most productive defender behind the line of scrimmage, though he is a senior who could also seemingly consider skipping the bowl. Former five-star prospect Dani Dennis-Sutton is next man up in the starting lineup at D-end, where PSU can also count on at least three other established contributors.
Aside from Isaac, draft-eligible defenders who could fit the mold of an opt-out candidate include cornerbacks Johnny Dixon, Daequan Hardy and Johnny Dixon, and linebacker Curtis Jacobs. Offensively, the discussion clearly starts with All-American offensive tackle Olu Fashanu, while tight ends Theo Johnson and Tyler Warren are among the Big Ten’s best. I’ll finish by noting that there has been no indication of other players opting out to this point, but these are some names worth knowing in the next three weeks should more news surface from the Penn State roster.
Kickoff for the 2023 Peach Bowl between No. 11 Ole Miss (10-2) and No. 10 Penn State (10-2) is set for 11 a.m. CT and can be seen on ESPN on Saturday Dec. 30. At the time of this writing, Ole Miss stands as 3.5-point underdogs. They are currently 1-2 in bowl games under Lane Kiffin and have appeared in the Outback Bowl (2020), Sugar Bowl (2021) and Texas Bowl (2022). Inside the Rebels will be on site for Ole Miss’ season finale and will provide more updates, quotes and stories leading up to game day.